Compounders:La gallina de los huevos de oro (plata también vale)


#1048

https://www.msn.com/es-cl/autos/noticias/detienen-troncomóvil-de-pedro-picapiedra-iba-a-exceso-de-velocidad/ar-BBPKEyb

:joy:


#1049

Con ese coche no se yo sí Carmena le dejará acceder al centro de Madrid… :sweat_smile:


#1050

Voy a intentar entrar hoy en Constellation Soft. Trabajando Interactive o Degiro tengo la duda de con qué instrumento entrar:

  • TSE: CSU (Toronto)
  • OTCMKTS: CNSWF (Nasdaq OTC)
  • FRA: W9C (Frankfurt)
    Supongo que la respuesta es a través de Toronto por el volumen negociado pero no sé si tenéis experiencia en compras en las otras dos bolsas.
    Gracias

#1051

¡Buena pregunta!

Yo entré en DeGiro en el de Toronto (sin cubrir moneda)

En teoría todos se deberían comportar igual pero yo intento ir siempre al principal.

No sé qué opina el resto de la comunidad

:wink:


#1052

Yo tengo Toronto de hace años…recupere lo invertido y el resto (que sigue como 1 tiro) lo pienso dejar forever (que además me sale gratis)
Tengo en otra cuenta el CNSWF… pero poco…si no la vas a mover (esta es para quedarsela)…la liquidez y la divisa importan poco EMHO


#1053

La idea es mantener forever. Compraré Toronto.
Gracias


#1054

B&H2012 vs Los Agoreros. Stay the course.

At last!

Phew!

Finally an article not filled with the typical doom and gloom.

Today was a banner day for doom and gloom articles.
One contributor even wrote that after a few more good years we might experience a financial catastrophe worse than the Great Depression and longer lasting than the Great Depression.

Give me a break.

Finally an article not filled with doom and gloom.

Makes me want to put that old Etta James recording of “At Last” on my old record player.

So many crepe hangers and pessimists and doom and gloom folks in the investment community. They need to go for a six mile run and chill out with that old Etta James record.

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are never pessimistic. They are both always optimistic. Which is why I like them so much. Not to mention the fact that they are two of the best investors on the planet.

We need to take a step back and look at the big picture. Since 1896, the stock market has gone up. We have been in a bull market for 122 years with an occasional bump like the Great Depression and the financial crisis of 2007 a long the way. These occasional bumps in our 122 year bull market have been outstanding opportunities for investors to add to their positions in their favorite stock while they are on sale.

My mother was flat broke in 1966 at age 45 after going through her second divorce. One of the reasons that she has been a successful investor in the stock market for the past 52 years is that she is an eternal optimist. I remember her friends and relatives gathering around her when she was flat broke at age 45 and acting as if they were at a funeral. “Poor woman,” they said to her, “no money, no husband, a child to support.” She looked at them and smiled. “I’m not dead yet,” she said.

There is always an opportunity for investors to make money in the stock market. But in order to make a lot of money in the stock market you need to stay the course. You can’t keep allowing fear of loss to send you running for the exits… If fearful investors only knew how much money they were losing by constantly running for the exits in their attempts to avoid losses, they would cry. In the stock market, as in life, the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Successful investing in the stock market is not a sprint, it’s a marathon.

A $1,000 investment in Berkshire Hathaway in 1964 is worth 24 million dollars now.

A $1,000 investment in Walt Disney in 1948 with dividend reinvestment was worth 96 million dollars by 2016.

A $1,000 investment in Philip Morris in 1925 with dividend reinvestment was worth 250 million dollars by 2016.

Don’t even ask what a $1,000 investment in Standard Oil in 1910 would be worth today. More than 250 milion dollars.

With such great investment opportunities in the stock market, why should anyone be pessimistic?

Even a $10,000 investment in Home Depot with dividend reinvestment in 1981 would be worth about 85 million dollars today.

The stock market is a moveable feast. A banquet. So hop on board this movable feast and always just stay the course. Remember the wise words of Auntie Mame. “Life is a banquet, but most poor bastards are starving.”


#1055

#1056

Bueno, después de darle muchas vueltas he decidido dedicar parte de mis inversiones a crear mi propia cartera de acciones estilo compounder:

1/2 de la posición deseada en MO comprada a 53,35 y 1/4 PM a 83,19 :sunglasses:
Esperaré pacientemente a que surjan oportunidades para seguir tomando posiciones…

[Altria Hits Lows: Should We Worry? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4224833?source=ansh $MO, $BTI, $PM, $XLP]

Buy&hold2012 parece que lo tiene claro… ver comentario número 9.
Spoiler : Buy


#1057

Pego un comentario del mismo hilo del usuario arthur_bishop1972 para motivar al personal

Work your a$$ off when you’re young(er), make as much $$$ as you can and invest as much and AS OFTEN as you can.
As for buying MO, I’m ready with savings to buy on ALL dips. I have a good job (20 years at Trader Joe’s, a third in mgmt, make GREAT money for what I do and enjoy it), but it’s not some fancy tech job tho. I don’t have expensive hobbies, my wife works part time, we don’t take vacations, buy boats, or blow money on stuff like that (YET)…we hardly even go out. I cut corners everywhere…recycle EVERYTHING (whether it gets $$$ for it or not), save paying for trash p/u by dumping my trash (only 1 bag a week for a family of 4) in my work’s dumpster, haven’t gotten new smart phones in 4 years, only have Hulu and Netflix ($7.99 ea a month still), don’t waste time (or money) on FB or Instagram, etc., and on and on.
And again, build up your savings for BUYING MORE SHARES…and HOLD THEM, even through downturns. Take your dividends, add more of your own $$$ and make your next purchase EVEN BIGGER.
I repeat the above EVERY SINGLE DAY. Unless you win the lotto, inherit a fortune, or have a six figure salary, (imo) you have to be serious as a heart attack about creating future income via dividends and reinvestment.
Oh, and stay healthy…STRETCH, walk or run some regularly, do push ups and sit ups at home (DON’T PAY for gym membership…do it yourself) and take a little time every (or every other) day to do something you love that doesn’t cost anything. You have to stay positive (enough) and focused to see it through to the end, WITHOUT being sidetracked by the world’s bull$hit and lose sight of the goal.


#1058

Este fin de semana he leído las cartas de Terry Smith, son pocas y no muy extensas, pueden encontrarlas en la web de Fundsmith.

https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/analysis

Comparto algunas líneas que me ha parecido interesante remarcar.

It is becoming clear that dividends are likely to provide a more significant portion of the total return on equities in the future than they did in the equity bull markets of 1982-2000 and 2003-07.

Every piece of research I have encountered and all my experience shows that frequent dealing is the enemy of a good investment performance.

The only people who want to deal more frequently than daily are hedge funds, high frequency traders, algorithmic traders and idiots (these terms are not mutually exclusive). Why join them? If you don’t want active management, and mostly you shouldn’t, buy an index fund.

Comentario sobre un movimiento de venta, no hacen muchos cambios en cartera:

The only voluntary turnover during the year were sales of our holdings in Kimberly-Clark Corporation (…). Kimberly-Clark began to show adverse results from our regular calculation of the incremental return on capital. We sold the shares at a small profit. They have subsequently performed poorly in terms of fundamental performance although the share price has ironically been quite firm. We prefer to judge our investments by what is happening in their financial statements than by the share price.

Sobre la importancia que se le da al precio, con matices:

Ultimately, of course, a focus on share price movements must be correct. It is no use owning shares in good companies if the strength of their business is never reflected in the share price, but a continuous focus on share price movements to the exclusion of the underlying fundamental economics of the companies is neither healthy nor useful. In the long term one will follow the other, and it is not the fundamentals which will follow the share price.

I have been asked far more frequently whether a share, a strategy or a fund is cheap or expensive than I am asked about what returns the companies involved deliver and whether they are good companies which create value or not.

Sobre eventos macro y otras inversiones value es crítico en el sentido de que si inviertes en un sector cíclico que está deprimido debes acertar con el timing, sino corres el riesgo de estar esperando mucho tiempo al cambio de ciclo mientras estás invertido en empresas destructoras de valor para sus accionistas (lo que hacen Cobas y Azvalor y sus solicitudes de paciencia), y si aciertas luego tienes que volver a buscar el siguiente sector.

I remain amazed (I could stop this sentence there) by the number of commentators, analysts, fund managers and investors who seem to be obsessed with trying to predict macro events on which to base their investment decisions. The fact that they are seemingly unable to predict events does not seem to stop them trying.

Esto siempre lo remarca @agenjordi en referencia a no ir cambiando de estrategia, o de fondo, cuando otros lo estén haciendo mejor:

Our inability to take a really long-term view, particularly through the periods when our chosen strategy and companies are not performing as well as less good companies, which are enjoying their period in the sun, is our greatest enemy.

Tiene otras reflexiones recomendables. Otro punto que veo y al leer las cartas seguidas es que en efecto los múltiplos de la cartera están altos comparados a cuando empezaron en 2010, así que las rentabilidades esperadas deberían ser menores los siguientes años. Por otro lado en caso de caídas grandes de mercado es posible que por el perfil de empresa caiga menos que el mercado, pero eso sólo podrá saberse a posteriori. Otro punto a tener en cuenta es el tamaño que habrá que ver cómo se gestiona (no hace referencia alguna en las cartas pero si que es frecuente la pregunta en las conferencias).

smithplane


#1059

Muy interesante, para mi su filosofía tiene mucho sentido y el tiempo le da la razón. Llevo su fondo y muy satisfecho.
Recomiendo la presentación de 2018, tocan puntos muy interesantes como:
A Largo plazo, la rentabilidad ligada al timing es muy pequeña vs la rentabilidad ligada al tiempo en cartera. Buy and hold.


#1060

Muchas gracias @longinversor por el link. La conferencia muy interesante y además divertida. He visto que el fondo se puede contratar desde Renta 4 y que además es traspasable.

Alguien lo puede confirmar? Se puede dar una orden de traspaso para suscribir FEF desde un fondo español como si traspasaras entre fondos españoles ?


#1061

Parece que así es, desde que se publicó un Hecho Relevante en octubre sobre el número de partícipes, ya es traspasable tanto de entrada como de salida. Por otra parte, si se busca el fondo en BNP ya se localiza sin necesidar de marcar “No traspasable” en su buscador, y si se quiere suscribir, en la ficha informativa aparece como traspasable:


#1062

Esto me aparece a mí en Renta 4, TRASPASABLE también.
Saludos.


#1063

Muy fan de Terry Smith.
Casi todas las conferencias son dignas de ver, su filosofía de:

  • Costes bajos de gestión y fondo.
  • Do nothing (poca rotación)
  • No sobrepagar la calidad.

en empresas que no busquen ser el número 1, sino que de hecho ya lo son, es una alternativa que no debe faltar en una cartera de largo plazo, basada en la calidad, estabilidad y crecimiento sostenido.

Hay por ahí otras ideas como el Stryx
http://www.morningstar.es/es/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F0000020J5
(que en la propia conferencia de 2018 aparece en la comparación con FundSmith), y también con Morgan Stanley en los fondos Oportunities (comisiones interesantes pero en USD)

y Quality (comisiones del orden del Seilern Stryx World Growth EUR U R)


#1064

MS,Fundsmith,Seilern world ,…alguno de estos tiene un “espejo” en forma de fondo de pensión?


#1065

Ya nos gustaría… :slight_smile:
No he visto algo parecido, igual alguien tiene uno por ahí, y que luego no tenga comisiones imposibles, claro.


#1066

Es que Smith ya tiene “comisiones de PP”.
Y el sector es 1 completo desastre…


#1067

El tipo es 1 cachondo y 1 sobrado…pero se lo puede permitir.
Es un poco más agresivo que Buffett en sus años mozos…pero solo un poco +.
La presentación de 1 F.I. entretenida…muy inusual!