Noticias en el mundo del tabaco


#121

Si lo que quiere es apostar por el tabaco, no le encuentro ningún sentido a hacerlo mediante ETF y menos mediante este AdvisorShares Vice ETF. Básicamente se puede montar su ETF particular comprando Altria, Philip Morris, BATS e Imperial Brands, dando el % que crea conveniente a cada una o simplemente equiponderando todas ellas. No hay mucho más aparte de eso, y así no tiene que decidirse por ninguna de las cuatro. Además, todas son de las amigables en la retención del dividendo. BATS e IMB 0% en destino, PM casi 0% en destino y Altria 15%.

Y algo se me debe de estar escapando, pero no entiendo como en un ETF llamado Vice se encuentran entre las mayores posiciones cosas como Thermo Fischer, Abbott, Novartis, AbbVie o LVMH.


#122

Pues buena pregunta. A vuela pluma sólo tengo respuestas para LVMH. Abajo dejo unos vídeos en los que basicamente hablan de Alcohol,Tabaco, y Marijuana. Supongo que el resto de compañías tendran algún tipo de exposición a esas industrias.

Este es el vídeo del PM:

(ACT) AdvisorShares Vice ETF | AdvisorShares

Y este el vídeo de la presentación para inversores.

(ACT) AdvisorShares Vice ETF | AdvisorShares


#123

Hago offtopic en este fantástico hilo; acabo de ver la película The Insider de 1999 sobre un caso de la antigua Brown & Williamson (que fue adquirida por British American Tobacco a posteriori) y uno de sus directivos.

Si les gusta el cine y no la han visto, o la vieron y no se acuerdan pues es de 1999, es un peliculón.


#124

En el tema de los CEOs, estoy totalmente de acuerdo en que Durante no ha sido de lo mejorcito que nos podríamos encontrar. Pero la buena noticia es que en un par de meses vamos a tener un nuevo CEO en BATS, seguramente lo anuncien en los resultados anuales dentro de dos semanas: https://www.ft.com/content/4f95112a-bc5c-11e8-8274-55b72926558f

Es cierto que gran parte de la inversión en nuevos productos de BATS ha sido vía Reynolds, pero es que BATS ha sido el accionista de referencia de Reynolds desde 2004. Reynolds fue la primera en introducir el heat not burn en 1994 (lo que es IQOS): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eclipse_(cigarette)


#125

Phil Gorham: Tobacco valuations have taken a big hit over the last 12 months with large-cap global players Phillip Morris International and British American Tobacco down 30% and 50% respectively. Dividend yields are now at a very attractive range in the high single digits, and although we think dividend growth is likely to slow to the low single digits over the next few years, we do think the the dividends are safe and this represents a buying opportunity for investors.

Investors have been concerned about two things. First, the more assertive approach by the FDA to regulating the industry with proposed measures including a potential ban of menthol flavorings and even a reduction in nicotine levels. And the other thing investors are concerned about has been the recent weakness in the performance of the heated tobacco category in Japan. Iquos, PMI’s popular heated tobacco device, will be making its way to the U.S. soon–perhaps this year--and investors that were hoping that heated tobacco would pick up the slack of falling cigarette consumption have been disappointed by a sudden slowdown and growth of the product in Japan.

On the regulatory front, the FDA’s proposed measures are a risk, but the market has assumed the worst-case scenario, and we think that even in the event of a menthol ban, some smokers would switch to nonmenthol cigarettes as has happened in Canada, since it banned menthol in October 2017. In terms of the heated tobacco category, history tells us that disruptive consumer goods rarely follow a straight line growth path and that adoption happens in stages. Investors are overlooking the fact that products coming in the pipeline, including a disposable version of Iquos, could solve some of the issues with first generation devices that have not, so far, appealed to the late adopters in the market. If this happens, we think revenue, earnings, and of course, dividends, can grow for longer than is currently being priced into the stocks.


#126

Se nota que no eres fumador si hablas de la mariguana de esa manera… Hay muchísimos tipos de mariguana, y las diferencias en el colocón son casi como el día y la noche, y nunca mejor dicho, ya que una variedad te anima y te invita a pensar y otra te hace dormir como un bebé (la sativa y la índica son los nombres técnicos).

Además con ingeniería genética se han creado plantas ultra-eficientes. Y también he llegado a probar variedades con sabor a limón o incluso algunas que plantan junto a la remolacha y cogen un tinte morado… En fin, que opciones para crear marcas de mariguana creo que haberlas haylas.


#127

Yo espero el cambio con optimismo y esperando que no siga una linea demasiado continuista.

Mi inversión actual en BATS me viene de Lorillard que fue en mi opinión una gran compra por parte de RAI y que posteriormente se terminó por zampar BATS: ya en aquellos días se hablaba con entusiasmo de todos estos temas relacionados con la transición de los cigarrillos hacía otros dispositivos (llegó a decirse, literariamente, que entrabamos en la nueva edad de oro del tabaco) por eso, para mí, ha resultado un poco “un jarro de agua fría” el cambio que he percibido (puede que esté equivocado) por parte de la directiva de BATS.

Estoy totalmente de acuerdo en que el germen original orinal de todo este tinglado nace más de RAI (y de algunas empresas que esta compró) que de PM (que tenía una cuota de mercado que defender ingente en USA) pero lo que ha pasado luego es que PM ha creído en el proyecto y ha metido pasta de una forma en la que BATS parece no estar dispuesta a hacerlo. Posiblemente por eso las cuotas de mercado están siendo tan distintas entre los dispositivos de una y otra (es verdad que es solo el principio). También puede ser que influyera en cierta medida la suerte claro.

Le entiendo. Lo importante es estar cómodo. Solamente se lo decía por el número tan pequeño de participantes en el sector.

Gracias por su comentario @angelitoo la verdad es que no tengo demasiada idea de todo esto de la Maria y me ha gustado mucho su aporte (No tenía ni idea de lo que nos ha contado). Será fascinante ver como se crea un sector de la nada (desde el punto de vista de negocio global y legal no del de el consumo) y quienes son capaces de aprovecharlo (se habla incluso de compañías de bebidas). Si me permite la pregunta ¿Piensa que se va a ir hacia un consumo de la mariguana sola o junto con tabaco?


#128

Diría que el gérmen original del orinal nace en la mente de M.Duchamp.


#129

Por lo que tengo entendido, en eeuu y latinoamérica es muy habitual consumir cigarrillos ‘virgenes’ (unicamente marihuana). En españa siempre he visto a la gente mezclarlo con tabaco… ¿tal vez por la influencia del ‘chocolate’?


#130

Y porque reduce el nivel de colocón y además si no está muy seca no quema bien


#131

Acaba de presentar resultados Altria, ven un año 2019 en el que los cigarrillos bajaran un 3.5-5% en volumen, podría ser ligeramente mejor que el -4.5% de 2018:

4Q18 First Thoughts – MO guides to OK vols in 2019

• Citi’s Take — Adj EPS was $0.95 for 4Q, in-line with consensus and 1¢ above Citi. Relative to our forecasts, pricing was fractionally better than expected but operating margins were slightly worse. Adjusted operating income beat our estimates by 0.5%, and non-operating items (ABI, tax) were also a little better. Figures 1-3 on page 2 show the detail of the results, relative to our forecasts.
• MO is effectively saying that Juul is effecting volumes, but not dramatically – Going into these results there was a wide divergence of expectations on volumes: some sell side analysts expected about -4% industry volumes with MO gaining share, but Nielsen and IRI had reported -7% industry volumes. In fact MO’s underlying 4Q cigarette volumes were -5.5% in a market down -5%. More importantly MO said it expects 2019 industry volume to be -3.5% to -5%, implying it expects Juul to continue to hurt cigarette volumes, but not at an accelerated pace, even though Juul will be able to put coupons inside packs of Marlboro, and MO will be implementing a $575MM cost cutting program.
• EPS guidance range – Altria said it expects EPS in the range of $4.15-$4.27, equivalent to 4% to 7% EPS growth. (MO has already said it would be a little below 7%). Consensus is $4.24 (range: $4.01-4.54) but we forecast $4.16. Historically MO generally gave a 2 percentage point range for its initial guidance, except for 2018, when the range was 4 percentage points. This year’s 3-point range isn’t that surprising given the uncertainties now around tobacco and Juul, but it does show again that earnings in tobacco are less predictable than they used to be.
• MO says it expects little to no contribution from Juul and Cronos to earnings – MO will have invested around $14.6B cash in the two companies. However it said it expects “little to no” contribution to earnings in 2019. We don’t know whether this implies that Juul isn’t profitable at the moment, or whether there is some other reason. We continue to think it has overpaid for both stakes.
• Market share continued to fall – MO’s cigarette market share appears to have fallen -20bps or -30bps, QoQ due to a further decline in Marlboro. (MO has restated it market share, so the QoQ is not totally clear.) Deep discount brands (not owned by any of the Big Three) gained a further 20bps of share QoQ (from 8.1% in 3Q). MO’s actual cigarette shipments were -4.4%, about 100bps better than the underlying number, due to an extra trading day and an easy comp in terms of inventory moves.
• Implications — The underlying 4Q volume numbers show that Juul and deep discount are continuing to hurt Altria’s volumes, but not as badly as Nielsen and IRI had suggested. MO expects volumes to improve slight in 2019, (due to lower gas prices) but we remain a bit nervous. We continue to think it was sensible to invest in Juul, but the price was way too high, and the other terms highly disadvantageous.


#132

La gente se esperaba cosas mucho peores, parece que va a abrir bastante por encima del cierre de ayer.


#133

Interesante los datos que dan sobre JUUL en mercados fuera de USA… parece que esta funcionando bien tambien en Canada y Reino Unido

http://investor.altria.com/file/4087349/Index?KeyFile=1001247877

Lo unico raro, que han tratado de rebajar las expectativas de JUUL en los USA… dicen que el crecimiento bajara por las medidas que estan tomando para reducir el consumo de JUUL entre adolescentes


#134

Altria sabe jugar bien al ratón y al gato con las autoridades sanitarias, llevan haciéndolo 50+ años.


#135

Interesante lo que ha ido comentando Altria en estos resultados. Comento algunas cosas que, de primeras, me han parecido interesantes.

Juul

Juul had net revenues in excess of $1 billion in 2018, up from approximately $200 million in 2017. Juul overwhelmingly reaccelerated the U.S. e-vapor category growth rate growing Juul’s volume by nearly 600% to over $450 million, refill kit pods. We estimate Juul represents over 30% of the overall e-vapor category across open and closed systems, and all-trade classes. After e-vapor growth plateaued from 2015 to 2017, rapid growth was reignited in 2018. And we expect U.S. e-vapor volume to grow at a compounded annual rate of 15% to 20% through 2023.

As a reminder, Altria share of Juul’s international e-vapor income would be 100% incremental to Altria. We believe the global e-vapor and heat-not-burned segments with estimated sales of roughly $23 billion in 2018 have substantial room to grow. Juul currently operates in eight countries with plans for additional expansion this year. We expect the Juul product features that have driven Juul’s success in switching adult smokers in the U.S. to strongly appeal to international adult cigarette smokers. And Juul has designed products [ph] in international markets to meet applicable regulatory requirements and also has significant new innovations in its pipeline.

Let’s look at two examples. First, in Canada, where distribution is limited, Juul reports that retail takeaway grew to more than 60% dollar share in stores selling their products after only three months at retail. Juul is also seeing encouraging performance where they have achieved distribution in Europe. For example, in the Sainsbury Chain in the UK, Juul tells us that it recently became the number one e-vapor brand in the chain with a dollar share in excess of 23% in less than 12 weeks after launch. And just to remind you, the UK operates under the tobacco products directive adopted by many EU countries, which limits the nicotine concentration level. Ultimately, we expect the international revenue and income opportunity to end up being as large as or larger than the U.S. opportunity. Our 35% investment was based on a deep strategic operational and financial analysis of Juul in the marketplace.

Clearly, we look at this opportunity over the long term, but for context, let us provide a view of five years out. Some of our independently developed key assumptions over the next five years that informed that analysis include a U.S. e-vapor category with a gross volume between 15% to 20% annually. Juul continuing to be the primary growth driver for the e-vapor category. Attractive Juul operating margins that achieved current cigarette-like-margins due to the benefits of increasing scale and automation in the supply chain. International revenues that equal domestic revenues by 2023 and international margins that approach current international cigarette margins.

Under our assumptions, our investment in Juul would generate an after-tax return exceeding our weighted average cost of capital in 2023. Additionally, with five year e-vapor category volume growth in the range of 15% to 20% annually, we would expect the U.S. cigarette category volume decline rate to be consistent with the decline rate estimate of 4% to 5%. I’ll remind you that in 2018 with e-vapor category volume growth of 35%, the cigarette category decline rate was 4.5%, including a 0.5% headwind from gas prices. Combined with the earnings and cash generation engine of our core tobacco business, we believe this investment in Juul will support consistent returns over the long-term by providing Altria with a significant stake in the fastest growing – in the fast growing e-vapor category.

La verdad es que pocas startups han salido como esta. Y… con la distribución de la mano de Altria cada vez me parece menos descabellada la inversión. Parece ser que,como apunta @madtrad, fuera de USA también lo está haciendo muy bien (esto es muy interesante para MO). Sigo manteniendo mi postura: inversión difícil de cuantificar en estos momentos y solo el tiempo dirá si ha sido un regalo o un bluff.

Cronos
Let’s now turn to Cronos. While the transaction is subject to customary closing conditions and expected to close in the first half of 2019, Altria’s agreement to acquire a 45% stake in Cronos with a warrant to achieve majority ownership will create a new growth opportunity in an adjacent category poised for rapid growth. It complements our strong core tobacco businesses and expands our income opportunity beyond the U.S. After years of evaluating adjacent opportunities the cannabis category is quite attractive and delivers on some key considerations including accretion to our long-term financial performance and synergy without Korea’s [ph] capabilities, allowing our combined resources to accelerate Cronos growth. While a range of estimates exist, a recent third-party report projects the 10-year global cannabis revenue opportunity to be in a range of $40 billion under a similar legal landscape to today to more than $250 billion assuming a fully legal market worldwide.

Pues un poco en la linea de Juul en lo que se refiere a buscar expansión internacional (MO no vende tabaco fuera de USA). Y lo que todos sabemos: un mercado potencialmente enorme que guarda sinergias con el negocio del tabaco y de los nuevos dispositivos. Mi duda siempre ha sido si la maría es un producto commodity (similar a lo que sería la lechuga) o si por el contrario se puede diferenciar y crear marca. A raíz de comentarios como los de @angelitoo y de @enginvert estoy mas en este segundo punto.

Parece que van a usar la cantidad de dinero que sobra del crédito para comprar Juul, para aumentar la participación en Cronos.

Iqqos
Harm reduction remains central to our view of the future for the tobacco industry. In addition to the significant opportunity presented by e-vapor, we remain very excited about the prospects for heat-not-burned in the U.S. It is now approaching two years since PMI submitted the IQOS PMTA and we are fully prepared to commercialize IQOS in the U.S. We remain fully committed to the success of IQOS in the U.S. and are excited to deploy our robust commercialization plans. PM USA is establishing brick and mortar stores, including locations in multiple cities within the first year of launch. They’ve already hired personnel to support prelaunch activities and are collaborating with key partners to best position IQOS at retail.
Parece que este año si que van a empezar a comercializarlo. Veremos como va.

Resultados.
En cuanto a lo que es el guidance de la compañía. Básicamente crecimientos de EPS 4% to 7%. Casi me parece milagroso y no demasiado lejano a lo que uno podría esperar de una compañía como MO (incluso en un momento más estable). Máxime teniendo en cuenta:

  • El aumento de los costes finacieros por la deuda para las compras.
  • Los costes que implicará el lanzar Iqqos al mercado.
  • El recorte del dividendo de BUD (que además yo creo totalmente necesario).
  • La canibalización que suponen los nuevos productos.

En fin, que parece razonable esperar tranquilamente cobrando el dividendo (que al menos con este guidance paree a salvo) mientras uno espera a que florezcan las inversiones (si es que lo hacen) y se estabilice un poco la cosa en BUD.

Esto no es ninguna recomendación de comprar, la compañía, como todas, tiene sus riesgos y además, en mi opinión, todos estos cambios tardarán en ir dando sus posibles frutos.


#136

Altria Group (MO) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript


#137

Citigroup sigue recomendando VENDER Altria.

Dice que son demasiado optimistas con sus proyecciones de JUUL, y que el crecimiento del vaping va a hacer que el negocio de los cigarrillos decrezca con mayor velocidad:

We stay skeptical even after MO presented a confident picture
 MO said why it is optimistic on Juul — MO said that in 2018 only 1.3% of cigarette
vols transferred to Juul. It expects Juul to drive 15-20% e-vapor category growth, such
that e-vapor reaches 25%-30% of the “greater cigarette” category by 2023, but it says
that this will reduce annual cigarette vol growth by only 200bps (to -4% to -5%).
 MO also set out assumptions to justify paying ~35x 2018 sales for its stake in
Juul — MO expects that in five years, 1) Juul will gain the lion’s share of the growth
it expects in e-vapor; 2) international sales will equal U.S. sales; and 3) Juul
margins will be similar to cigarette margins.
 But we remain skeptical — MO’s figures imply that in 2018, 2/3 of Juul’s growth
was incremental. We expect that in the future, Juul will be less incremental and hurt
cigarettes, especially MO’s cigarettes, much more, because Juul will be placing
dollar-off coupons in packs of Marlboro, and its new ads target older smokers.
 We still think that MO overpaid for Juul because we believe that the assumptions
are too optimistic — The history of iQos and all other NGPs is that even if they look
successful, they can stop growing suddenly. iQos also shows that success in one
market is no guarantee of success everywhere else. The margin assumption is
optimistic too, in our opinion: BAT, Imperial, PM, and JT will launch new e-vapor
products, discounting if necessary. And what happens if taxes on e-vapor rise?
 We also think that the outlook for the core cigarette business is problematic
— We worry that the $575MM cost savings program will hurt PM USA’s ability to
compete. On our numbers, operating margins will have risen from 41% in 2012 to
58% in 2020. MO is already losing share to deep discount because its prices are
too high. How long can it keep growing margins at 200bps a year?
 We retain our Sell rating – We expect MO to cut costs to ensure that it hits its
2019 EPS target, and the annualized impact will help 2020. But we think after that,
EPS growth is likely to be more modest. MO’s number-one competitor is on an 8.7x
P/E, so we think that it’s reasonable to expect MO’s shares to de-rate over time.


#138


#139

B&H2012 le explica porque no hay que hacer el menor caso a lo que puedan publicar los amigos de Citigroup:

Of course Altria is a buy at its current price of $45.16.

Interesting that Citigroup issued a BUY rating on Altria on 9/12/16 when the price was $64.67 and then a SELL rating on Altria on 12/21/18 when the price was $49.09.

Keep on buying stocks at $64.67 and then selling them 27 months later for $49.09 and you will end up in the poorhouse.

A $10,000 investment in Altria on 8/1/95 with dividend reinvestment is now worth $265,046.16.

A $10,000 investment in Citigroup on 8/1/95 with dividend reinvestment is now worth $12,458.83.

On 8/1/95, Citigroup should have issued a BUY rating on Altria and a SELL rating on Citigroup.

The performance of Citigroup since 8/1/95 has been terrible.

Sandy Weill was the chief executive of Citigroup from 1998 until October 1, 2003 and the CEO from October 1, 2003 until April 18, 2006.

During that time, his compensation was about one billion dollars.


#140

Con una RPD actual del 6% y pico mas un crecimiento de EPS del 4% ya tenemos ese ansiado retorno de doble dígito … donde hay que firmar?