Gracias!! Así me queda perfectamente claro.
Comentario de Morgan Stanley
Can tobacco companies still compound?
The key asset of the tobacco industry has been pricing power. An addictive product, a concentrated industry and steadily rising taxes that make up most of the purchase price have all combined to drive circa 5% per year pricing. As such, the price rises have more than made up for the impact of the tightening regulatory environment over the last 50 years. Our view, for now at least, is that the recent regulatory noises in the U.S. around reducing nicotine in combustible cigarettes and banning menthol are not a break with this long-term pattern, as any implementation is likely to take a long while, if it occurs at all.
What has changed is the introduction of new technology, the ‘next generation products,’ be they vaping or ‘heat not burn.’ While this change may embolden regulators to take firmer action against traditional combustible cigarettes, given the availability of alternative nicotine delivery systems, the main impact is on competitive dynamics. The new products can upset the historically stable market shares, be it Philip Morris International taking 16% of the Japanese market with IQOS or JUUL’s vaping product threatening the U.S. incumbents. Our belief is that those with good next generation products should gain share and therefore can compound, but that other players cannot. As a result, the investible universe within tobacco has shrunk, meaning for us that it has fallen to below 10% of the portfolio from its peak of around 25%.
Es que al final, el IQOS para PM en Japón ha supuesto que la empresa alcance unas cuotas de mercado (sumando el Iqos+cigarrillos) que nunca había tenido en el país. Claro que para Japantobacco la situación es precisamente un poco la contraria. En esto, el tabaco (a pesar de los pocos jugadores) no es distinto a cualquier mercado: hay empresas mejores y peores, empresas que innovan más y otras que lo hacen menos, empresas que aciertan y empresas que no.