Hola,
El texto era un copiapega de Morningstar. Si ha habido notas específicas sobre las adquisiciones, no las he visto. Tampoco puedo acceder al archivo porque se lo cepillaron, o yo no sé como acceder. Yo personalmente no tengo una opinión formada sobre el devenir de la empresa. Pego la parte de valoración que es lo último que me aparece.
Following third-quarter results, we increase our fair value estimate for Chr. Hansen to DKK 530. This is driven by slightly higher 2020 organic growth estimates due to strong momentum in the FC&E and health and nutrition divisions. Therefore, we’re increasing our 2020 organic growth estimates for the FC&E and health and nutrition businesses to 5.5% and 7.0%, from 5.0% and 3.5%, respectively, resulting in 5.2% organic growth for the group (from 4.1% previously); close to the middle of management’s guidance (which remained unchanged). Our fair value estimate implies 34 times adjusted 2021 earnings.
In cultures and enzymes, we expect about 6.7% average organic sales growth, lower than the unit’s 10-year average growth rate of 8.9%, with an increase in EBIT margin to 35.8% in fiscal 2024 from 34.3% currently, supported by increased utilization of its world-leading fermentation capacity and industry-leading growth. The latter emanates from a combination of robust fundamental market growth, pricing, and further market share gains and the introduction of next generation and innovative products such as bioprotection to new and current customers/markets.
In health and nutrition, we expect about 9.4% average organic sales growth over the next five years (a bit lower than 10% guidance), which is below the low-double-digits average growth rate seen on average over the last decade. The acceleration in organic growth from 2021 onward results from the sales contribution of new initiatives concerning plant protection and the human microbiome; investment in which is currently weighing on profitability.
The natural colors segment is expected to increase sales organically by around 5% per year. We expect a margin improvement close to 13.3% by 2024 from 12.7% in 2019, the result of continuous efficient improvements and volume growth, taking the division’s EBIT margin though lower than its previous 16% peak level (fiscal 2012).
Overall, Chr. Hansen should increase sales organically by around 7% on average over the next five years, at the midpoint of management’s updated long-term guidance (5%-9%) accompanied by average annual EBIT margin improvement of around 30 basis points, taking the group EBIT margin close to 31%, driven primarily by higher utilization of fermentation capacity, better mix, and further operating leverage gains as high-single-digit volume growth continues apace. ROIC at about 24% expected in 2024 should remain safely higher than the firm’s 7% cost of capital.
Saludos!