Al hilo del post de @DanGates Blogs, artículos y demás - nº 2707 por camacho113 voy a poner algunos extractos interesantes que creo que se aplican en esta conversación.
Sometimes the whys don’t matter. One of the reasons Simons and his researchers have been successful is they didn’t come from an investing background.
So they didn’t care about how or why something worked, just that it did.
These trends and oddities sometimes happened so quickly that they were unnoticeable to most investors. They were so faint, the team took to calling them ghosts, yet they kept reappearing with enough frequency to be worthy additions to their mix of ideas. Simons had come around to the view that the whys didn’t matter, just that the trades worked.
By 1997, though, more than half of the trading signals Simons’s team was discovering were nonintuitive, or those they couldn’t fully understand.
Human behavior makes the market go round. Even after reading the book it’s still impossible to succinctly explain how Simons figured out how to mint money. But this was the best simplistic explanation from one of his researchers:
“What you’re really modeling is human behavior,” explains Penavic, the researcher. “Humans are most predictable in times of high stress — they act instinctively and panic. Our entire premise was that human actors will react the way humans did in the past…we learned to take advantage.”
