Anastasio acaba de montar un chiringito de Analisis tecnico con ondas de Elliot y velas japonesa, creo que ya ha publicado un post en Finect y todo…
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muy bueno!
A mi lo del análisis técnico siempre me llamó la atención (a quien no) .
Recuerdo hace como 25 o 30 años (si, uno ya tiene espolones en esto) que llamé a 1 señor que tenía cursos de AT ,en casete creo…un tal Antonio Saez del Castillo… y le pregunté (por teléfono) :Vd. en que invierte su dinero…después de dar vueltas y parafrasear …el Sr. muy honesto remató :letras del tesoro .
Me quedé un poco despistado …pero en poco tiempo até cabos .
Claro…esto era antes del Tarot de la tv, la videncia y Rappel …y que conste que este Sr. me parecía sincero y no quería engañar a nadie …quien soy yo ,además.
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Yo lo del AT lo vi claro desde el principìo, sin embargo no descubrí el “Value Investing” hasta hace tan solo 6 meses (¿Se puede ser mas burro?) y eso que leo el diario cada día desde que tengo uso de razón, lo cual me lleva a la siguiente reflexión ¿Por qué algo falso como el AT es omnipresente y en cambio algo tan obvio como el Value cuesta tanto de encontrar?
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En mi caso ,descubrí a Buffett cuando leyendo el Herald Tribune descubrí una acción que cotizaba a 9 mil y pico dólares …sería el 91-92.
Después tuve la mala suerte de descubrir los backtest …el momentum …y como esos “sistemas” superaban al “pobre” de Buffett …y lo fácil que era.
Si, el que escribe es muy ingenuo…un tufillo que siempre me acompaña.
Claro…cuando se me abrió de verdad la mollera …es cuando descubrí a buyandhold2012 …hará como unos 2 años y pico …después vino MO, el tabaco,los staples …y la cosa empezó a tener sentido DE VERDAD .
Siempre envidio a Buffett ,por tener esto claro desde que tenía 11 años …eso es tener suerte!!
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La gota del Domingo , extraida del discurso de Theodor Roosevelt “Citizenship in the republic”, es conocida como El hombre en la arena
No es el crítico quien cuenta; ni aquellos que señalan como el hombre fuerte se tambalea, o en qué ocasiones el autor de los hechos podría haberlo hecho mejor. El reconocimiento pertenece realmente al hombre que está en la arena, con el rostro desfigurado por el polvo, sudor y sangre; al que se esfuerza valientemente, se equivoca y da un traspié tras otro pues no hay esfuerzo sin error o fallo; a aquel que realmente se empeña en lograr su propósito; quien conoce grandes entusiasmos, grandes devociones; quien se consagra a una causa digna; quien en el mejor de los casos encuentra al final el triunfo inherente al logro glorioso; y que en el peor de los casos, si fracasa, al menos caerá con la frente bien en alto, de manera que su lugar jamás estará entre aquellas almas frías y tímidas que no conocen ni la victoria ni el fracaso
Discurso completo
Quizá es que en el AT en principio hay una promesa ( me recuerda una antigua “novia” que me prometía un beso cuando llegáramos donde ella tenia que ir ; teníamos entonces 13 años, pero cuando llegábamos se iba y no cumplía ) aunque el que gana dinero seguro es el otro ( libros,cursos,comisiones) y se tiene que promocionar.
En el value si uno no se mueve aunque no sepa porqué , nadie viene a decírselo porque el otro ya está ganando dinero o espera ganarlo sin necesidad de ti , es más si alguien te lo comenta enseguida te va a parecer raro y sin ninguna garantía ya que después de permanecer años invertido puede que no ganes tanto :-))
Hoy las gotas son unas cuantas frases de Jeff Bezos:
“Es más dificil ser amable, que ser inteligente”
“Cuando tengas 80 años, y en un momento tranquilo de reflexión, narrando sólo para ti la versión más personal de tu historia de vida, el relato que será más conciso y significativo será la serie de elecciones que hayas hecho. Al final, somos nuestras elecciones”
“Trabaja duro. Divertete. Haz historia”
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Creo que Bezos tambien tiene otra perla… algo asi como…
El margen de la competencia es nuestro negocio.
Brillante sin más.
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He cogido 3 así a bote pronto, pero es brutal la cantidad de frases buenas que tiene:
http://www.emprendovenezuela.net/2011/10/16-frases-celebres-de-jeff-bezos.html
Yo nunca tuve mucha fe en este hombre…hasta que ya era demasiado evidente que era un genio 
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A mi me pasó lo mismo.
Con toda la eclosión de internet y tanto encantador de serpientes…este se me escapó… yo siempre pensé que era un vendedor de libros que cambiaba el dinero… pero el tipo sabe pensar…
Tampoco hay que flagelarse por no haber descubierto el potencial de algún gran negocio espectacular si uno ya consigue buenos resultados con negocios menos espectaculares pero que tal vez no necesiten que su máximo dirigente sea un genio del mundillo para lograr esos resultados.
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Exacto
A Altria O BATS le da igual que la dirija Bezos o Buffett…va a seguir vendiendo casi lo mismo.
AMZN yBRK van a sufrir cuando sus alma-mater pasen a mejor vida.
Tampoco se muy bien como se llama el CEO de Colgate…y ahí esta…JNJ,PEP,ABT…y paro.
Hay vida fuera de los gurus…las marcas y los buenos negocios se resisten a morir.
NIKE tambien creo que sobrevivirá a Phil Knight
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Las gotas del dia
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smart tips for micro-cap investors
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By Larissa Fernand | 30-01-17 |
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About the Author
Larissa Fernand is Website Editor for Morningstar.in. She would like to hear from you and welcomes your feedback.
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Ian Cassel is a well-known, full-time, private investor. His hunting ground is dedicated solely to micro and nano caps. In fact, in 2011, he founded MicroCapClub, an exclusive forum for experienced microcap investors to exchange ideas, collaborate on due diligence, and learn from each other.
This long-only, quality focused investor will hold on to his position as long as he is convinced about his thesis. Being an inherently risky area in the field of investing, Cassel believes in deep qualitative analysis and constant due diligence so he is always aware of what he owns.
He dispenses some learnings for investors in smaller fare.
- When it comes to investing, don’t be a chicken, be a hawk.
Don’t be afraid to say no to 99.9% of investment opportunities. You only need to find one great company, before others, to change your life. Extraordinary returns follow extraordinary discipline. An investor’s goal should always be to make as few investment decisions as possible. Keep your hurdle rate high and embrace inaction.
Chickens will eat anything you put in front of them. They will eat insects, bugs, meat, fruit, vegetables, fish, and, yes, even chicken. They have no self-control and will even eat their own eggs and faeces.
A hawk can see up to 8x more clearly than the sharpest human eye. To put in comparison, if you had a hawk’s vision you could see an ant on the ground from on top a 10-storey building. A hawk’s eye is so large that it occupies a big portion of its skull. The hawk knows what it’s looking for.
The visual capabilities let the hawk distinguish the size, shape, and speed of the potential prey so it can recognize, target, and capture it quickly.
Don’t be a chicken, be a hawk.
Be picky.
As you fly above the investment world looking for opportunities, develop tools, strategies, even statements, that you can apply quickly to evaluate opportunities. Know what you are looking for so you can develop the vision to recognize an opportunity quicker.
- Don’t bother finding the next multi-bagger if you are not going to develop the conviction to hold it.
Stocks rarely perform in the time frames we predict, and it’s why the market only works for investors that have a long-term portfolio focus. Performance is never linear, up and to the right, year after year. You sometimes have to hold onto a position for a few years before it goes up 100% in 3 months.
Every multi-bagger will have long periods (even years) of stagnation as fundamentals backfill, old shareholders get bored, and new shareholders enter. Just like a fine wine, sustainable multi-baggers often take their time to ascend and develop. If you’re invested in great businesses that continue to grow and earn more money, don’t let lulls in stock price and boredom scare you out of them.
Lee Freeman-Shor writes in his book The Art of Execution:
“One of the key requirements of staying invested in a big winner is to have (or cultivate) a high boredom threshold.
It is very hard to do nothing but focus on the same handful of companies every year; only researching new ideas on the side.
Many of us, seeing we have made a profit of 40% in one of our stocks, start actively looking for another company to invest the money into – instead of leaving it invested. This is precisely why lots of investors never become very successful.”
As human beings, we are very impatient. The hardest part of maturing as an investor is allowing ourselves the time. You can’t force it. Many investors “force it” by being active for activity’s sake. As Ed Borgato says: “What Wall Street perceives as productive activity is needless complexity”.
Investors tend to over-analyze when stocks are going down (fear) and under-analyze when stocks are going up (greed). The hardest part of investing is holding through these times, embracing boredom and inactivity, and distancing human nature-emotion from investment decisions.
- Learn to differentiate between business performance and stock performance.
Sustainable multi-baggers have certain characteristics: Long-term revenue and earnings growth with little to no dilution. When you are holding onto a position ask yourself – Is this business growing and making more money per share than it did a year ago, two years ago?
I started buying a company early 2012 when it was at $0.35-0.40 per share. As my conviction grew, I bought more. We are in January 2017 and the stock is still at $2 per share. On the face of it, this has been dead a dead investment money for 2.5 years. Years!
But, the company’s business is almost double the size it was 2.5 years ago. The stock hasn’t gone anywhere but the business is doing really well. I have no problem holding this stock. If the business wasn’t performing, I would sell.
Successful investors can differentiate business performance from stock performance and can take advantage of those investors who can’t.
Great businesses have great stocks. Great businesses always get overvalued. It’s important to make investing decisions based on business performance, not stock performance. It’s also important to know the distinction between external stock market forces driving a stock price lower (buying opportunity) versus business reasons you are not aware of (you should be selling).
- Avoid piling into a position at one go.
All my winners had one thing in common, I was always averaging up. Most of my losers had one thing in common, I was always averaging down.
My buying strategy has evolved over the years. Early on I would pile into positions too quickly after naively believing what management would tell me. Overtime I realized giving up a small amount of upside to de-risk the investment was well worth it. I normally buy my positions in thirds as my conviction grows. If something doesn’t check out along the way I’m not stuck in a huge position.
I buy my first third after extensive due diligence and after talking to management. I dig through all the filings, industry journals, place some calls into customers, suppliers etc. Think of this as passing the smell test. I’m also making sure I have ample margin of safety.
I buy my second third after traveling and meeting management at their head quarters. I want to see what their offices look like, the interaction between management. Is it a dictatorship or a democracy at the management level? Can I find an employee who hasn’t been told “to be nice to me” and ask them questions? Does the company do the little things well? Do they pay attention to detail? What do they drive? What are their motivations? etc.
I buy my last third after the management team does 25% of what they say. The majority of microcaps over promise and under deliver. You make money on the ones that under promise and over deliver. It takes time to make sure you are betting on the right jockey. They need to prove this to you by executing, so buying this last third might not happen for months. With most of my winners, I bought this final third 100%+ higher than my first third.
My personal investment philosophy is to buy microcaps that I think can be 5-10x in a few years. It might sound insane, but I don’t buy stocks where the peak potential return is less than 100%. I’m look for and buy undervalued companies that have the potential to get very overvalued. If I’m initially buying a $0.50 per share stock, I’m likely buying it because I think it can be a $5.00 stock in a few years. So who cares if I’m buying my last third at $1.10 after the investment has been greatly de-risked by management execution? Even after these small microcaps double, let’s say from $10 million market cap to $20 million, they are still very under followed and not even on institutional radars.
In all my big winners, I was constantly averaging up.
- Successful investing isn’t about being right all the time; it’s more about the ability to identify when you are wrong quicker.
Investing is tough because you have to constantly anticipate how the thinking of other people is going to change before they know it themselves. This means you have to buy investments early, before the investment is obvious. But, there is a thin line between being early and being wrong. If you are constantly buying the stock lower it is likely the latter. If you find and buy great investments, you’ll likely be making subsequent purchases at higher levels.
Always keep your ego to the minimum. The market loves to humble boastful investors.
When you find yourself constantly averaging down it’s normally a sign that your ego has taken over. You’ve convinced yourself you have to be right, but you forget that being broke and right is the same thing as being wrong. Your ego clouds your judgment and slows your thinking. Many investors have gone broke trying to prove the market wrong, and you certainly aren’t going to prove yourself right by throwing good money after bad.
- The management makes the difference.
The smaller the company, the more should be the focus on management and qualitative analysis. CEOs of small microcap companies tend to wear a bunch of hats, so their influence is much greater than larger companies. Founders are the difference makers.
Microcap investing is really entrepreneurial investing, which means you really need to talk to management. I’m cautious in saying this because not every small investor should expect to be able to call up and talk to management. The point I’m making is on quarterly conferences calls, etc. take advantage of the opportunity to ask good questions.
A qualitative attribute in most of my winners was a CEO that figured out how to swim on his/her own. They grinded it out and dug their way out of the hole. Most importantly they did it without diluting shareholders. When management does right by shareholders in the worst of times, it’s much easier to fully trust them in the best of times.
Invest in management teams that focus on the long-term and let their execution do the talking: 90% of microcap management teams say too much and do too little. This rare breed is called “intelligent fanatics”. I want to invest in owner-operators that have an intense focus, integrity, energy, and intelligence.
Once I find an “intelligent fanatic” running a potentially great business I start the due diligence process. If everything checks out, I invest. As management executes, I buy more at higher prices.
Intelligent Fanatic = (Long Term Vision + Focus + Energy + Integrity + Intelligence) x Execution
The combination of all these traits multiplied by execution is what makes an “intelligent fanatic”. Many investors mistake an executive with charisma for being an intelligent fanatic. The microcap space in particular is filled with snake oil salesman and executives that talk too much and do too little. Don’t mistake a story telling, charismatic CEO as an intelligent fanatic. In fact, many intelligent fanatics are not charismatic. Intelligent fanatics let their execution do the talking.
In conclusion, keep this in mind:
I like companies with no debt, or at least low debt. Small companies and debt just don’t go well together. Travel light, travel far.
Cash flow, not reported earnings, is what determines long-term value. Undiscovered companies that can sustain 30-40+% growth rates from internally generated cash flows are hard to find.
Look forowner-operators with intense Focus, Integrity, Energy, and Intelligence.
For a small microcap company to be a market leader, it must dominate a small market. I want to own businesses that dominate a small market that is expanding. This normally pushes quality attributes down to the financials.
Look for a clean capital structure. I look for low outstanding shares, all common shares, and low amount of warrants/options as a percentage of outstanding shares. You want to invest in a management that treats its shares like gold.
I prefer no institutional ownership. When you find and invest in great businesses that bigger money doesn’t own, the stock has nowhere to go but up.
Find repeatable, sustainable, profitable growth. My biggest risk as a microcap investor is dilution. I want to find companies that are self-funding their growth.
Buy when the business is fundamentally undervalued to limit risk and to fully leverage multiple expansion. Your margin of safety is buying an undervalued business that can get overvalued.
What counts in the long run is the increase in per share value, not overall growth or size.
All the above information has been taken from Ian Cassel’s blog.
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KK Singh
Jan 31 2017 05:07 PMExtremely well articulated articles on investing. Reading this article appears to be reading the mind of a very seasoned investor. I wish I could get to read something from the author on how to create conviction as an investor even though one is able to screen out the companies and maintains them in watch-list but not able to bring them into portfolio. This is in context of Indian equity market.
Ganesan T
Jan 31 2017 04:19 PMAll the points are Very true, guess am becoming a better investor
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Perdone @jvas por pisarle su tema con este corta y pega…pero no me pude resistir.
Lo considero muy interesante.
De perdonar nada!! Pise, pise!! Que todo lo que sea sumar siempre es bienvenido! 
Anonadado así es como estoy necesito digerir esto, gracias.
Uno de mis inversores favoritos, Peter Cundill, nos dejó grandes citas.
Patience, patience and more patience. It’s a quality that most investors do not possess
There were heaps of these magic sixes. The magic sixes were companies that had 6% dividend yield, 6 times earnings and 60% of book value
Most value investors tend to buy things too early and sell things too early.
There’s always something to do.
Y por si no lo sabíais… “buy dollars for 40 cents” es suya , tambien.
Hay dos libros realmente buenos para acercarse a Peter,
Creo que es una consecuencia lógica del concepto central del margen de seguridad como fundamento de la inversión en valor.
Ahora que está tan de moda, al menos en territorio nacional, calificarse como value, presumir de no sufrir, este “efecto secundario” posiblemente es una mala señal sobre la forma real como se invierte.