Blogs, artículos y demás


#1132

Perdonarán que no cite la fuente, pero acabo de recibir un email que dice lo que transcribo a continuación…
Aunque a mí personalmente me hace meditar, tampoco le hagan mucho caso y que cada uno busque su propio camino, por favor…

“”
HEARTBURN, NOT A HEART ATTACK

Not long ago, many investors were kicking themselves for not investing more when the stock market was cheaper. But when stocks fall, like they did last week, many investors have a hard time buying for fear stocks may go lower still.

Who knows, maybe they’re right. We have no idea where stocks will close today, nor at the end of the week. Corrections (both small and large) happen from time to time. In hindsight, many claim they knew it was coming, but we don’t know anyone who has successfully traded corrections on a consistent basis – we certainly won’t try.

We’re also skeptical when analysts try to attribute corrections to a particular cause. It’s a basic logical flaw: post hoc ergo propter hoc. Because the correction happened after a certain event, that event must have been the cause. But important news and economic events happen all the time. Sometimes the market goes up afterward, sometimes down, and similar events at different times have no discernible impact.

Now some are blaming the Federal Reserve, and specifically statements from Chairman Powell, for the recent in equities. But, according to futures markets, the outlook for monetary policy has barely changed. The markets are still pricing in a path of gradual rate hikes and continued reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.

Let’s face it, fretting over the Fed is as old as the Fed itself. In recent years alone, we faced the “Taper Tantrum” and calls for a fourth round of quantitative easing. And remember when the Fed first raised rates and then announced it would reduce its balance sheet? Each time, analysts predicted the apocalypse was upon us – that a recession and bear market were right around the corner. How did those calls pan out?

Exactly, they were wrong, and this time looks no different. QE never lifted stocks, taking it away won’t hurt; and interest rates are still well below neutral. The biggest pain has been felt by those who followed the false prophets of doom.

The odds of a recession happening anytime soon remain remote, we it at 10%, or less. And a recession is what it would take for us to expect a full-blown bear market. In other words, the current downdraft is just heartburn, not a heart attack.

We’ll publish a piece next week about our exact forecast for economic growth in Q3, but it looks like real GDP rose at about a 4.0% annual rate. Profits are hitting record highs and businesses are still adapting to the improved incentives of lower tax rates and full tax expensing for business equipment. Home building is still well below the pace required to meet population growth and scrappage (roughly 1.5 million units per year). Household debts are low relative to assets and debt service payments are low relative to income. These are not the ingredients for a recession.

That’s why we love Jerome Powell’s response to the recent gyrations in the market. Many pundits were calling for him to back off his tightening and his “hawkish” language, but he didn’t take the bait. He’s focused on monetary policy, and the economy and won’t be pushed around by hysterics or market gyrations. The S&P 500 fell about 6% from its intraday all-time high to Friday’s close. This isn’t earth-shattering, and the Fed shouldn’t respond. Investors need to stop obsessing about the Fed. Instead, they should focus on entrepreneurship and profits. The fundamentals are what matter.

Meanwhile, some investors are concerned about President Trump tweeting or speaking out on the Fed and monetary policy. If this were any other president, we’d be concerned, as well. But we all know Trump isn’t the kind of president to hold his opinions close to the vest on any topic. If he thinks it, he says it. Please take his comments on the Fed in that context. That certainly seems to be what Jerome Powell is doing.

The bull market in equities that started in March 2009 isn’t going to last forever. But we don’t see anything that’s going to bring it to a screeching halt anytime soon.

“”


#1133

Gracias @aeneas, interesante lectura, que no deja de ser una opinión más.

Por cierto, una búsqueda rápida en Google me ha llevado aquí.


#1134

jaja qué agudo @scribe no sabía ni había mirado que también lo publicaran en la web, pensaba que sólo lo enviaban por mail, pero si lo publican en abierto ya no hace falta mantener el sigilo. Por si interesa a alguien, cada semana hacen un artículo similar, por tanto entiendo que en la web podrá consultarse.


#1135

A mi aquí: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2018/10/15/heartburn-not-a-heart-attack

:slight_smile:

Parece que les mola que les sindiquen el contenido a tutiplén.


#1136

#1137

Era de esperar esa respuesta


#1138

Desde fuera(no soy partícipe de Cobas) creo la respuesta de la empresa es de lógica aplastante.


#1139

Volatilidad versus riesgo


#1140

Los white papers del Jensen Quality Growth:


#1141

http://savearyzta.com/


#1142

No veas con Mr Larius: Tiene la solución para mutiplicar la acción por 4 en un plis plas (¿Será taxista?), simplemente hay que hacerle caso y ni tan sólo hace falta ampliar capital.
A ver si luego se pone con OHL que yo pongo la coca cola y los cubitos.


#1143

Me ha parecido interesante, y me recuerda directamente algunas inversiones muy de moda últimamente


#1144

Significativo desinterés/desconocimiento por las finanzas
https://www.serenitymarkets.com/secciones/intradia/33401-la-pregunta-que-los-lobos-de-boom-en-antena-3-no-supieron-responder.html


#1145

Cambio en la cartera de mi madre: Vendemos agradecidos a Silicom (“no te olvidaremos”) y compramos Bayer, al que nuestro algoritmo atomico secreto (reprogramado severamente despues de las compras de Groupe Guillin,Econocom y OHL) concede mayor potencial y margén de seguridad.
Desde que leimos este bonito cuento, esperabamos ilusionados la llegada de este momento.
https://greenlightuat.itgny.com/Download.aspx?ID=88718ece-a58e-4ffc-bedb-0d2c26cd1a6a&Inline=1https://search.norton.com/?o=APN11910&chn=Default&guid=8ad92664-e736-4054-a4a9-b45d4b6f72ee&doi=2018-01-19&prt=Default


#1146

A precios actuales no parece mala compra . Yo también compré unas cuantas mas a 67 eur.
Entre esta y OHL , me quedo con la primera :sunglasses:


#1147

Muy buen video, calentito y salido del horno:

entre otras cosas utilizan derivados vendiendo opciones put, todas las preguntas y respuestas interesantísimas.


#1148

¡Una maravilla!
Tanto Los Valentum como Value School
:top:


#1149

Grupo ZENA compra VIPS

Y Koplowitz sale de Cobas y AZ (no sé cuanto tenía la verdad).


#1150

Una mirada muy crítica al value nacional


#1151

Interesante reflexión/resumen de Max Keiser de su programa Keiser Report los últimos años La economía mundial lleva muerta desde el año 2008