Blackstone, el líder indiscutible


#21

Hombre, fundamentalmente ganan pasta con las distribuciones y esa es la razón por la que son muy altas, por lo que no está nada mal ir sentado en el asiento del sidecar con ellos.

Buffet creo que ha construido una imagen muy poderosa en torno a su persona, que como todo en la vida tendrá sus luces y sus sombras.

Entiendo que son compañías muy impopulares, y que tienen muy mala imagen, pero si mi tesis es correcta, dentro de diez-veinte años habrán resultado una inversión excelente, pues “lo que ves, no es lo que es”. Claro que esto es solo una opinión, y que por probabilidad, Berkshire debería darles cien patadas, en fin, que es lo bonito de esto, que cada quien puede tomar sus decisiones y todos acertar :smile:


#22

No le conocía yo su faceta de calientavalores @jvas :joy:


#23

Hay que ver lo que le toca hacer a uno para llegar a fin de mes @arturop :joy:


#24

Me había quedado yo pensativo tras lo que comentaba @quixote1, en como andarían de retribución via salario ultimamente y he encontrado un artículo interesante, bastante general.

Los dividendos suelen ser su mayor fuente de ingresos y ahi va uno a medias con ellos

In the last two years, Stephen A. Schwarzman, the chief executive and a co-founder of the Blackstone Group, received the largest sum. In 2015, he collected just under $800 million, up from $689 million the year before. Of that amount, only $350,000 was his annual salary. He received no bonus.


#25

Perdone mi atrevimiento @jvas …no tengo ni idea de blackstone …ni de sus ejecutivos…y me tomé la libertad de criticarlos…


#26

No hay nada que perdonar @quixote1 y menos de alguien como usted! Lo que quería decir es que muchas veces los paradigmas nos sesgan en nuestra manera de analizar compañías. “Las aerolíneas no son rentables”, “El tabaco está en desuso” etc… y viene bien profundizar un poco más y ver si realmente es o no real lo que vemos. En cualquier caso espero que siga dando su valiosa opinión y que podamos debatir y aprender juntos que de eso se trata! :wink: yo por ejemplo pensaba en los dos cliches de arriba y gracias a @arturop compré Allegiant, que me parece una buena compañía y gracias a usted y a @Fernando, les acompaño en Altria, al ayudarme a ver las cosas de un modo más real, en esos casos.


#27

También de manera rápida, los resultados del Q4 de BX, que han sido realmente buenos e indican el cambio de tendencia

Los AUM han seguido aumentando, lo cual va en línea con la tesis inversora

El capital para invertir disponible, se mantiene más o menos en el mismo rango

Siguen con bastante caja

Los performance fees , han sido muy flojos, lo cual para mi es excelente, pues si con unos perfomance tan bajos, consiguen esta rentabilidad, en cuanto empiecen a florecer, como indican en el Transcript veremos un aumento considerable

Copio algunos párrafos de la transcripción:

Stephen Allen Schwarzman - The Blackstone Group LP

Good morning and thank you for joining our call. Blackstone closed 2016 with strong fourth quarter results, as Weston just mentioned, and powerful momentum heading into 2017. Fourth quarter revenues and Economic Net Income rose by 79% and 86%, respectively. For the full year, revenue reached $5.1 billion, while ENI rose to $2.4 billion, both up 11%, as compared to only slight earnings growth for the broader market.

We generated full year cash earnings of $2.2 billion and continue to pay very healthy distributions to our unitholders. In fact, over the past three years, Blackstone has actually distributed over $8 billion in value to our unitholders, which is more than any other public firm in our industry, no one close. And we remain one of the highest yielding equity securities of any large company in the world.

In conclusion, looking forward, I envision excellent prospects for the next several years for our firm and for our limited partners. Our business is flexible and responsive to changing dynamics which is ideal for the period we’re entering. For our unitholders, we’re coming off a period of record fundraising, significant investment activity, and have a powerful near-term earnings trajectory which Michael Chae will describe to you in more detail.

Michael S. Chae

With respect to realizations, our pipelines are strong. We expect to remain very active. And, importantly, we start the year with great momentum in terms of DE from sales that are effectively locked in. Specifically, we currently have $8.7 billion in realization under contract or already closed in January that are expected to drive over $700 million or over $0.60 per unit in distributable earnings, most of which we expect to close in the first quarter.

These sales include the Hilton stake sell, transactions involving Change Healthcare, Optive, Pactera and our Japan residential portfolio among others and a number of significant public stock sales that have already been completed just in the first few weeks of the quarter. So, from where we sit in January, we see a very strong trajectory in terms of DE and cash distributions to our unitholders for the year.

Y aquí es donde viene la madre del Cordero. Si consiguen que con la nueva Administración Trump, los 401K puedan invertir en sus fondos, los AUM se dispararían.

Schzwarman

One thing I’d say, this is Steve, at the risk of prolonging this answer is that in life you have to have a dream. And one of the dreams is our desire and the market’s need to have more access at retail to alternative asset products. As I said in my prepared remarks, if you look at those returns, those are really stunning. And at the moment, a lot of people are not allowed to put those into retirement vehicles and other types.

One of the interesting issues when you have a new government is whether they want to continue that type of prohibition or not because what it’s doing is denying people sort of a better retirement. And if there is a change in that area, that becomes a huge opportunity for the firm. We already have lots of white space that Joan was talking about. So we’re not defective in terms of things to do every day to increase sort of penetration, but there is ability for something to get changed that could be really, really impactful. And we’ll see what happens with that.

Michael Roger Carrier - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Yeah. That’s helpful. And then just as a follow-up, you guys mentioned a lot on the policy changes, whether it’s taxes, improving economic growth and what that means for the portfolio of companies. Just in terms of maybe fundraising opportunities with potential changes, like anything stick out? Tony, you’ve spent a ton of time on the retirement space, and what potentially could change or what the opportunity could be for you guys or for others in the industry?

_H_amilton E. James - The Blackstone Group LP

Well, I think Steve hit on it in his comments. The really big, vast, vast untapped territory is the $27 trillion that’s in 401(k)s that we don’t sell – we, as an industry, don’t sell anything into. So we – and I would say that severely penalizes 401(k) savers because they earn typically 2% to 3% on their money. There isn’t a pension fund in America that hasn’t earned more than 6% and their targets today are about 7% on average going forward. So you can see the cost, if you will, of forcing investors into short-term daily mark-to-market, daily liquidity, illiquid stuff (54:21). And if we could open up those pools of capital to our kind of investing, I can assure you that retiring Americans will be vastly better off, both short-term and long-term.


#28

No hago ningún caso a las opiniones de los analistas, pero ciertamente, es bastante lógico lo que la gente de Credit Suisse comenta

(1) Markets are missing the improvement in BX’s underlying earnings power: Given the rapid growth in metrics that we use to evaluate BX’s core/underlying earnings power (carry generating AuM, carry eligible AuM, fee-earning AuM,…), we think BX could roughly double its 2015 (last cycle peak) DE generation in three to five years. This implies that BX could generate DE in the $6-7 range in 2019-2021. A 9x valuation would value the BX stock around $60 (more than 2x current entry point plus cumulative dividend distribution over five years would return ~40% of cost basis). (2) BX is a “fundraising machine”: Key to our investment thesis is BX’s ability to (1) innovate product and (2) raise large amounts of capital. Over the last three years, Blackstone has raised a similar level of capital to its four largest public competitors combined, and has generated the strongest FE AuM growth rate (despite being the largest).

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2017/02/03/credit-suisses-top-asset-manager-broker-and-exchange-picks-are/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_fof


#29

Llevo tiempo pensando en crear una cartera que simule las compras de los buenos PE. Quiza sea buena idea.


#30

Cartera JVAS El Buitre Leonado


#31

Vulture Asset Management no suena nada mal eh? Lo cierto es que me perdí la ultima explosión con Latecoere y estaba bastante claro que estaban haciendo lo correcto. No obstante, no conviene olvidar que los buitres primero comen ellos, y les da un poco igual como se quede el cuerpo del bicho siempre y cuando sacien a sus partícipes :grin:


#32

Os recomiendo leer la carta anual de Don Steve. Siempre se aprende algo nuevo. Interesante su reflexión

This is the most interesting
and dynamic time to be an
investor that I’ve seen over
my nearly fifty years in
finance.

Aquí va la carta


#33

Acaba de publicar resultados. Sin haberme parado a verlos bien, parece que han sido brutales.

Creo que APO irá en la misma línea.

A destacar que la distribución es la segunda más alta que han repartido (0.87$), siendo la primera (0.89$) y que desde la IPO llevan repartidos 14$.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/20/blackstones-first-quarter-earnings-more-than-double.html


#34

Vamos a detenernos algo en los resultados de BX y en la earning´s call, pues creo que queda mucho para que el mercado valore correctamente Blackstone.

Como parte del ciclo del PE, ahora se encuentran en el momento dulce, pues están monetizando una parte importante de las inversiones realizadas, lo que gracias a los Performance fees, dispara el valor del ENI (Economic Net Income). Ojo, que esto es totalmente cíclico.

Más allá del brillo de los Perfomance fees, para mi lo que realmente tiene peso, y lo que me hace seguir pensando que BX está infravalorada es esto:

Aumenta un 6% el capital preparado para invertir, debido a dos factores:

  • Nuevos incrementos en PE.
  • Fondos de Inversión inmobiliaria Europea.

Blackstone no tiene deuda, y como se puede observar de los 30$ a los que cotiza 8,55$ son cash.

Aumentan los performance fees, pero observemos los del Q1 15

Ahora veamos algunos puntos interesantes de los Earning´s call.

LPs know that the types of returns we generate over the long term can’t be replicated in the public markets. Our investment solutions are highly customized from the fund structures themselves to the way we create value with our portfolio operation experts and asset management capabilities. In many case, we’re building companies from scratch, we’re developing strategies to rapidly expand existing companies, including through acquisitions. This is much different than investing passively in public stocks. The resulting performance is differentiated and largely uncorrelated to most other assets. Our LPs understand the uniqueness of our asset class, though there’s no surprise that demand for alternative products continues to increase.

There’s also an information advantage that comes with size, providing a critical underpinning to our performance. We’re basically in the intellectual capital production business. Assuming that our people are equally as smart as the best qualified investors in the world but have a more informed view, then logically, we should be able to produce better results. As Blackstone grows larger, our access to information increases and our returns benefit which may seem counter intuitive, but as you can see, it happens to be true. This ability to generate and evaluate information is a key structural advantage at Blackstone.

Blackstone’s global portfolio provides a truly unique platform from which to learn. Our portfolio now consists of nearly 150 companies where we hold control or significant influence with a combined enterprise value of over $400 billion. These companies employ approximately 600,000 people around the world, making us one of the 5 largest U.S.-based employers. In fact, our portfolio of companies employ as many people in some entire smaller countries in Europe and Asia. As one example, a Blackstone portfolio workforce equates to nearly 1/3 of the workforce of the entire country of Ireland and 1/4 that of New Zealand. Our real estate business is one of the largest private owners of real estate in the world, I might say the largest. We’re the largest owner of hotels and offices globally and the largest owner of logistics in Europe. Our credit business is one of the largest managers of leverage of loans in the world and BAAM is the largest investor in hedge funds in the world with almost 140 external managers.

The average company in the S&P has a dividend yield of 2% and trades at around 20x last year’s earnings. Blackstone stock raised to 12x, not 20x, last year’s earnings with an 8% yield, not a 2% yield over the last 3 years, as I mentioned. That’s despite having leading positions in all of our various businesses. Faster revenue and earnings growth and much higher payout. Go figure. I don’t think they teach that in Graham and Dodd.

Y esto ya, depende de la opinión de cada uno

As most of you know, I’ve been racking my brain to make sense of this disconnect. If our shares were valued the same as the average S&P company based on dividend yield, the share price would be over $100 a share instead of the $30, where it now is. If we were valued using the average P multiple, the price would be over $50. That’s just math. In any case, this disconnect remains a mystery to me. I leave it to you to figure it out.

Es muy interesante cuando le preguntan, si realmente ve la acción infravalorada, porque no hace recompra de acciones. Steve, contesta:

That’s something we always look at. And we’re starting – planning to start a number of new businesses. And we have unpredictable needs for capital for growth. And the higher those needs are, in a way, I guess, the happier we’re. And so if we get into an area where a limited partner asked us to pioneer something and needs a certain amount of money to put up as good faith money, you always want to have money to do that. The returns, I guess, we – as we discussed in the past, can run up as high as 30% for doing that. But even more than 30% on just one situation, it grows the scale of the firm, it grows the number of things we can do for a limited partner. And that’s got a knock-on effect that’s very substantial. And so we tend to be cautious with sort of our use of money because that’s sort of the greatest return for shareholders in the long term and just sort of generally cautious financially because we have a high payout for the stock.

Plus, we do get presented with acquisition opportunities constantly. And the idea of not having enough money on hand to take advantage of these unique opportunities, as manager, I look at it and say, it’s always great to have the firepower to do whatever comes your way that’s truly compelling. And so it’s a bit of a dilemma when you have a stock at the level you don’t like. And you’re trying to plan for accelerated growth of the business for the future and at least, at the moment, we sort of come out reserving for those opportunities because there – once you start these types of businesses, they grow from little acorns to really giant sized trees and that’s the best way to create value.

Conclusión: Teniendo claro que los 100$ que comenta Steve parecen muy lejanos y muy optimistas, personalmente pienso que los 30$ actuales no reflejan el valor de la compañía. 50$ quizá sería mi valoración.

BX es una inversión volátil y viviendo en España, por la retención de las distribuciones, hace que se resientan mucho. En cualquier caso, es una compañía que quiero tener para el largo plazo y me siento muy cómodo con esta y con APO, para mi los mejores con diferencia.

Poca gente ve estas empresas como grandes vacas lecheras, pero la realidad es que lo son, y que si uno está dispuesto a soportar la volatilidad, el premio es importante.

Disclaimer: Esto NO es una recomendación de compra, y quiero dejar muy claro, que es una inversión con una VOLATILIDAD ALTA


#35

Muy interesante como siempre @jvas, una pregunta ¿Cuanto retienen de los dividendos en U.SA? últimamente tengo la duda de si es mejor comprar las acciones en su pais de origen o en los EE.UU (Ej: Nestle, Novo) supongo que la clave estará en la retención aplicada, aunque quizás hay algún otro factor importante que se me escapa.Gracias de nuevo por sus articulos, aprendo mucho.


#36

@TTAR, si no eres residente en USA y rellenas un formulario te retienen el 15% en origen .

En UK asombrosamente no te retienen nada .Si señor, thanks the queen ! …

Los dividendos de los demás paises “normales,invertibles” tienen una retención en origen superior al 15% …25% hasta el 35%. Francia,Alemania,Dinamarca,Suecia,Italia.

Claro ,antes de ingresar el dividendo en su cuenta ,la AET coge su retención como cualquier acción española ,el 19%.

Esa retención en origen ,aunque exista tratados de doble imposición con esos países es casi imposible de recuperar…sobre todo para los pequeños inversores.


#37

muchas gracias por la información, está claro quién gana siempre…


#38

En general es como te han comentado, con la única salvedad que Blackstone es un LP ( Limited partnership ), que es una figura creada para beneficiar a la clase media americana.

Al ser nosotros españoles, te retienen como un 40% del divi los americanos. :persevere:


#39

Aquí tenemos a un quebrado pidiendo sopitas a los buitres,


#40

Jvas, buen día.

Estoy estudiando entrar BGB.

Puede ser que te haya entendido bien?.

Retención en origen de un 40% y en España otro 20 %?.

Si es así vaya bajón.

Ya me comentaras.

Gracias y disculpa mi asombro.